Phil Duffy on the Trump-Biden debate

In 2016 something strange happened. The people were so frustrated with the socialist Democratic Party that they accepted Donald Trump's bombastic style and made him president. That infuriated the Democrats who then used the FBI to spin a wild scheme of collusion with the Russian government somehow fixing the 2016 election. When that blew up in their faces, the Democrats doubled down with impeachment. That caused them to lose votes and the Senate failed to convict so they doubled down once again with Covid-19 lock-downs and violence in the streets of Democratic Party-controlled cities. Then the Democrats made the mistake of selecting the weakest candidate for the presidency in the nation's history and a man cognitively impaired to boot. The critical first presidential debate occurred yesterday evening with everything stacked in Trump's favor. In 90 minutes he managed to snatch probable defeat out of the jaws of victory with boorish behavior that conflicted with the image of being presidential that was necessary to win the evening. 

I have several Republican friends who were already planning to vote for Biden based upon Trump's earlier behavior. Today they have to be confirmed in their earlier decision. But let's assume these voters were irretrievably lost to Trump before the debate began yesterday evening. What was the strategic purpose of the debate from a Republican perspective? Only to win over the 8 to 10% of the voters who remain uncommitted. What did it actually accomplish? For people like [Sean] Hannity, it seemed to be the invigoration of Trump's base. But those votes were already "in the can" to use Hollywood lingo. For voters on the fence, yesterday's ugly performance probably turned the remaining uncommitted into Biden votes. Ironically Trump is considered to be the super salesman and yet he disregarded a fundamental rule of selling - never continue selling when the sale has been made. The idea is to move on to the next prospect. By playing to his most avid supporters, Trump ignored what he needed to do yesterday evening. He appeared to be winging it. 

Trump's campaign had agreed to the rules of conduct of the debate, but then he violated those continually. He was first warned by the moderator and then publicly scolded by the moderator. He continued to blow through stop signs right to the end of this shoddy performance. Ironically, he had the cognitively impaired Biden on the ropes several times, but by interrupting him, he allowed those moments of temporary confusion to be unnoticed while giving Biden time to reorganize his thoughts. Clearly Biden did not win the debate yesterday evening - Trump lost it (not only the debate, but his image of a president under control).

~ Phil Duffy, September 30, 2020