Jeff Saut: "Secular bull market has many years to run"

Between mid-July and mid-August I think the markets are vulnerable to the first meaningful pullback of the year.  That said, confidence remains high that we are in the midst of a secular bull market that has many years yet to run.

~ Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist, Raymond James Financial, "Market Top Is In; Brace For a Correction," interview with Jeff Macke on Yahoo!Finance, July 31, 2013

Bill Laggner on riding the bull market

Everyone thinks they can ride a wave and leave before a tsunami ruins their day at the beach.

~ Bill Laggner, July 30, 2013

Nouriel Roubini on gold: "The world is not going to end"

Our forecast, medium term—meaning by 2015—is that gold is going down toward $1,000 an ounce, so from current levels, another 25-30 percent correction could occur. We have written extensively on the reasons for this:

1. Tail risks in the global economy are lower than they used to be. The world is not going to end.
2. In spite of the QEs, inflation is going to remain low because growth is weak, and therefore all this extra money is going into the reserves of the banks, as velocity is collapsing. If anything, inflation is now falling both in emerging and advanced economies. So buying gold as a hedge against inflation, in spite of all these QEs, is not a good investment.
3. There is a global economic recovery. There are now other assets that provide both an income and a capital gain—from equities to even real estate—while gold has always been a play on capital appreciation.
4. Real interest rates became very negative in the U.S. and globally. So at current levels, they can only go higher rather than lower because there is a strong relation in gold prices and real interest rates. However, slow as the normalization by the Fed is going to be, eventually there will be one, and the real rates are going to hurt things like gold.
5. In a world where other advanced economies are weak and emerging markets are soft, the dollar may tend to appreciate, affecting the dollar prices of commodities, including gold.

The question always with gold has never been black and white on whether you want to have gold in your portfolio. The issue with gold is always, Do you want to be market weight, overweight or underweight? In our view, in the past, there were reasons you wanted to be overweight. But now there are these five reasons to be underweight. It is because the gold prices are more likely to fall rather than rise.

~ Nouriel Roubini, "Roubini Sees $1,000 Gold, Stronger US Growth," IndexUniverse.com, July 29, 2013

Anonymous on elitism

A fool can put on his coat better than a wise man can put it on for him.

~ Anonymous