Rolf Dobelli on the illusion of skill

In certain areas, skill plays no role whatsoever.  In his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, [Daniel] Kahneman describes his visit to an asset management company.  To brief him, they sent him a spreadsheet showing the performance of each investment adviser over the past eight years.  From this, a ranking was assigned to each: number 1, 2, 3, and so on in descending order.  This was compiled every year.  Kahneman quickly calculated the relationship between the years' rankings.  Specifically, he calculated the correlation of the rankings between year 1 and year 2, between year 1 and year 3, year 1 and year 5, up until year 7 and year 8.  The result: pure coincidence.  Sometimes the adviser was at the very top and sometimes the very bottom.  If an adviser had a great year, this was neither bolstered by previous years nor carried into subsequent years.  The correlation was zero.  And yet the consultants pocketed bonuses for their performance.  In other words, the company was rewarding luck rather than skill.

 ~ Rolf Dobelli, The Art of Thinking Clearly, p. 283

 

Shaun Rein on how the U.S. has been a magnet for talent

One of the great things about America is that we have been a place that the top talent in the world, from China, from the Soviet Union, from Vietnam, they all want to come to our country.  Because America is a great country.  It's an exceptional country.  And so we should be making it easier for top talent, people who bring money, bring in intellectual knowledge into the United States.  That's what makes America great and that's what we should be encouraging.

 ~ Shaun Rein, Twitter/X post, November 12, 2025

 

Michael Weeks on when to sell

When should I sell? 

Ask an economist, an investor, and a business owner this question and you will get three different answers: a theory, a formula, and a decision.

The theory is universal and true, but not practical.

The formula is universal and practical, but not true.

The decision is true and practical, but not universal.

My answer is simple: You sell when it makes sense. 

Not a theory.  Not a formula.  Always a judgment call, based entirely on experience and circumstance.

~ Michael Weeks, Edelweiss Holdings, Twitter/X post, October 15, 2025

 

Kevin Duffy on narratives that drive the state

The state thrives on 2 false narratives:

1. It must protect group A from being exploited by group B.

2. It must solve some crisis (or future crisis) that the free market is incapable of solving due to apathy, greed, lack of resources or lack of vision.

~ Kevin Duffy, Twitter/X post, November 10, 2025 

 

Per Bylund on economic literacy

Economic literacy is mind-opening because it allows us to truly understand how the world works. 

~ Per L. Bylund

 

Lee Kuan Yew on communism

In 1978, we had a discourse. I said to him, Communism will only work if you believe that all men will sacrifice themselves for their fellow men and not [first] for themselves and their families. I work on the basis that all men and women first work for themselves and their families, and only then will they share a portion of it with the less fortunate. That's the basis on which I work. 

~ Lee Kuan Yew to Deng Xiaoping when he traveled to Singapore in November, 1978

Kevin Duffy on the U.S. vs. China

From an economic standpoint, the U.S. and China are moving in opposite directions. 

The reality is that a) there are a lot of smart, hard working, resilient, entrepreneurial people in China, b) markets have gotten much freer since Deng's reforms in 1978, c) significant capital accumulation has taken place and d) there has been tremendous investment in human capital. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. has been doing all the wrong things (it's a long list) and moving towards markets that are less free. The consequences of these trends are becoming increasingly obvious, yet instead of coming to grips with reality and working towards getting our own house in order, we Americans prefer to deny reality and blame the successful for our own failures.

Not diagnosing and fixing the problem is bad enough, but this is far worse: we risk destroying two positive countervailing forces that have helped alleviate our self-inflicted wounds. The first is turning our backs on China's productivity miracle, which has been a boon to the American consumer. The second is alienating Chinese STEM students, who bring their talents to Silicon Valley and increasingly run our most successful tech companies.

~ Kevin Duffy, Twitter/X post, October 20, 2025