Aug 13, 2010

Forbes magazine of the 1930s committing the broken window fallacy

The drought was a Godsend. So was the rain that followed it. The prolonged dry spell brought distress to hundreds of thousands of families and has hurt business over a wide area, but it has restored the food markets of the nation to a new basis of stability.

~ "The Editors", commentary in Forbes magazine, September 1st, 1930

Aug 11, 2010

JP Morgan's David Kelly on double-dip immunity and the growing US economy

I think [the odds of a double-dip] are very slight. I'd put it at no more than 15%, possibly 20%, but no higher than that. And the reason is -- and it's very important for people to understand this -- recessions are all about a collapse in the cyclical sectors: autos, housing, business equipment spending, inventories. If those are already in the basement, it's very hard for them to collapse.

That's why you get this immunity after you have a recession, which makes it hard to have another recession. We've got some bad economic numbers today, we think second quarter GDP will be revised down significantly, but overall it still looks like a growing economy to us.

~David Kelly, chief market strategist, JP Morgan Funds, CNBC Street Signs, August 8th, 2010

Brent Wilsey on buying the dip in the face of bad news

I'm seeing good news from the CEOs, I'm hearing good news on trucking, from trains and so forth, all this good news. I guess every once in awhile I'm glad this happens. We get the bad news and the fears of the double-dip. Well, that's kind of good for me because it gives me a chance to step in and buy more. Every time these dips come along, I've got more money coming in, I buy more time. It's a great time to buy and that's what it should be used for, buying on the dips like we have.

~Brent Wilsey, president, Wilsey Asset Management, CNBC Street Signs, August 8th, 2010

Jim Cramer on the 8/11/10 selloff

For me it's just another garden variety selloff.

Jim Cramer, CNBC's Mad Money, August 11, 2010

(The DJIA closed down 265 to 10,379.)

Aug 2, 2010

Alan Greenspan on the stock market as economic stimulus

If the stock market continues higher it will do more to stimulate the economy than any other measure we have discussed here.

~ Alan Greenspan, the Maestro, former Fed chairman, Meet the Press interview, August 1st, 2010

Alan Greenspan on long-term interest rates

There is no doubt that the federal funds rate can be fixed at what the Fed wants it to be but which the government has no control over is long-term interest rates and long-term interest rates are what make the economy move. And if this budget problem eventually merges to the point where it begins to become very toxic, it will be reflected in rising long-term interest rates, rising mortgage rates, lower housing. At the moment there is no sign of that because the financial system is broke and you can not have inflation if the financial system is not working.

~ Alan Greenspan, the Maestro, former Fed chairman, Meet the Press interview, August 1st, 2010

Jim Rogers on remembering the context of earnings season comparisons

I think some of it is expectation management as you put it out, but remember what the comparisons were, we are talking about the second quarter of 2009, when the world essentially was coming to an end. Remember, at the end of 2008, beginning of 2009 we all thought the world had ended. The markets hit bottom in March 2009, well those were the comparisons we were up against. So things are actually better then people were expecting, but they should have looked back to see what the comparisons were and remember, the governments were spending huge amounts of money and that money has been flowing into the system in the last couple of quarters. Worry about next year, don`t worry about the second quarter now, that's history.

~ Jim Rogers, investor, CNBC interview, July 27th, 2010