Oct 27, 2023

Doug Casey on terrorism

The fact is, believe it or not, there are over 100 distinct definitions of terrorism out there, mostly put out by various US government agencies. Perhaps they can’t agree on a definition because it’s useful to leave the concept as a floating abstraction to be used when convenient. 

I would define terrorism as a tactic of warfare intended to have mainly psychological effects on a civilian population. 

But, remember, terrorism is a tactic of warfare—like artillery barrages, cavalry charges, frontal assaults, and a hundred other tactics.  They’re all nasty.  But properly applied, terrorism can often achieve an objective with vastly fewer casualties than the alternatives. 

Napoleon said, quite correctly, that in warfare, the psychological is to the physical as three is to one.  That’s why there’s an emphasis on winning—or at least changing—the hearts and minds of both the enemy’s troops and his people. Terror is one way to do that.  And it’s typically the lowest-cost alternative.  The US, currently still a rich country, rails against “terror” because it’s mainly a poor man’s tactic.  But we use it when it suits us. 

In the last century or so, the US has fought a lot of guerrilla conflicts.  But it typically forgets that when you’re an outside third party fighting a guerrilla war in someone else’s homeland, you’re almost certainly on the wrong side because guerrilla wars are people’s wars.  And it’s a thin line between a guerrilla war and terrorism.  I’m a freedom fighter; you’re a rebel; he’s a terrorist. 

Governments have always used terror.  The Assyrians—proto–Middle Easterners, if you will—liked to scare enemies by skinning alive those who resisted.  Genghis Khan and Tamerlane purposefully used terror by piling up skulls into pyramids.  The Romans purposefully committed genocide as a method of warfare on occasion and reserved crucifixion as a terror punishment. 

Let’s not be too sanctimonious about terrorism.  Bombing cities, which are by definition full of civilians, is just state terrorism, tarted up, justified, and rationalized with legalities and rhetoric.  The real enemy here isn’t terrorism, writ small or large, it’s politics.  The real enemies are the institutions of politics and governments themselves.

~ Doug Casey, "Middle East Conflict and What Comes Next," International Man, October 26, 2023





Oct 26, 2023

Yuval Noah Harari on the Hamas attacks against Israeli civilians

The aim of the attack was really to sow seeds of hatred and violence for generations to come, to destroy all chance for peace.  What is, I think, very difficult for people in Europe to understand often is the mind frame behind this that there are people - and I know it because there are also people like that in my country [Israel] - there are people who just don't care about this world and about human suffering in this world because they are fixated on fantasies about another world.  In the Middle East this is politics.  This is the bedrock where everything starts.  And from the perspective of Hamas - not just slaughtering Israeli civilians - even the suffering of Palestinians does not count.  Because if a Palestinian is killed according to Hamas, they are martyrs, they immediately go to heaven, what's the problem?  We can not live, coexist, with such people holding immense military capabilities on our border.

~ Yuval Noah Harari, Zeit Online interview, 2:25 mark, October 19, 2023




Oct 24, 2023

Clyde Prestowitz on the history of Israel, Palestinians and America's involvement

I know this is probably a foolish piece for me to write as it will not change any dynamics while probably stirring disenchantment with me among readers on all sides. But having been there before, I simply cannot remain silent in the face of the renewal of the long running Israel-Palestine war. 

My 2003 book, ROGUE NATION - American Unilateralism and the Failure of Good Intentions, was written in the wake of 9/11 in an attempt to show the American public that despite its very good intentions America’s perceptions of itself and its international role were (are) greatly at odds with reality and with the perceptions of much of the rest of the world, and especially of the Arab world. 

What I am seeing on the TV screen as I write now is proof positive that despite mine and the efforts of many others, nothing has changed. Indeed, the misperceptions, false assumptions, half truths, and outright lies have only gotten worse. The reporting admits of no history, of no possible causes other than sheer barbarism, and of no solutions other than completely wiping the “barbarians” and the people of their lineage out. 

A LITTLE HISTORY 

Let me take you back to the beginning of the Arab/Palestinian-Jewish/Israeli conflict. Some may say, with justification, that it goes all the way back to Abraham and his two sons - Ishmael (father of the Arabs) and Isaac (father of the Jews). But today’s conflict really began in the late 19th century when Jewish leaders in Europe like Theodore Herzl, Leo Pinker, and Moses Hess began promoting the idea of enabling Jews to escape the discrimination they often suffered in Europe by emigrating to Palestine, the ancient homeland of the Jews around Jerusalem which was then part of the Turkish Ottoman Empire. In reading their early writings, it is fascinating to observe that they seemed completely unaware that the area had long been and was then occupied by Arabs. Indeed, they ventured to speak of “ a land without people for a people without land.” 

Consider that for just a moment. Either they just did not know that in fact there were a lot of people there or they did not consider the then present inhabitants to be people. 

As the project proceeded, friction between immigrant Jews and resident Arabs quickly arose as it became ever clearer that the newcomers had no intention of becoming part of the local life, but aimed rather to build their own separate and very different society. Indeed, Chaim Margalit Kalvarisky, a one time Jewish Colonization Association manager, once noted that he felt “compassion” for the Arabs and that twenty five years of dispossessing them had been hard, but he had had no choice because the Jewish public demanded it. The Jewish philosopher and writer Ahad Ha’am noted prophetically, “We have to treat local populations with love and respect… and What do our brethren in the Land of Israel do (note that even at this early date when there were virtually no Jews there, it was being called the Land of Israel)? Exactly the opposite. Should the time come when the life of our people in Palestine imposes on the natives, they will not easily step aside.” 

World War I brought a pregnant moment when, in an effort to marshal Jewish support for the allied cause in Europe and the U.S., British Foreign Minister Lord Balfour issued the “Balfour Declaration” which called for eventual “establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish People.” He added that “Zionism, good or bad, is of far profounder import than the desires and prejudices of the 700,000 Arabs who now inhabit the ancient land.” 

Of course, this happened to be at odds with the views of Henry McMahon, Britain’s High Commissioner for Egypt who was trying to incite an Arab revolt against Germany’s allies, the Ottoman Turks. He went so far as to send a letter to Arab leader Sharif Hussein promising independence to the Arabs in the Ottoman-ruled provinces if they would rise up against the Turks. Indeed, he even sent the letter along with a person charged with assisting such an uprising - one T.E. Lawrence (of Arabia). 

These promises collided at the Versailles Peace Conference where President Woodrow Wilson allowed his prejudices to overcome his devotion to national self-determination noting that “undeveloped peoples” would need “guidance” from administering powers under mandates from the League of Nations. London, having long forgotten Lawrence and the Arab revolt pushed hard to be awarded the Mandate for Palestine. Wilson’s King-Crane Commission was sent to investigate local sentiment and found strong opposition to the Zionist program among the area’s Christian-Muslim majority as well as a desire for an American Mandate. The Zionists, who surmised that America would insist on majority rule that would put Arabs in control, strongly opposed any American presence. ( the Zionists did not “stand with America” ). Rather, they strongly preferred Britain and the Balfour Declaration. Wilson went along, and the Brits wound up in charge of Palestine. (France got Lebanon).

The Mandate turned out to be unhappy and nothing but trouble for Britain. As immigrants poured in from Europe with financing from the Colonization Association, tensions with the Arab population led to frequent riots. But when the Brits tried to restrict immigration, they wound up with serious conflicts with the Zionist groups who had significant political influence in London. 

This all got lost in the tumult of WWII, but with the end of the war, millions of Holocaust survivors turned their steps toward Palestine. Fearful of massive displacement, the Arabs resisted further Jewish immigration, and the Brits again imposed restrictions. But now a new player named the Irgun entered the game. A Jewish underground army (the father of today’s Prime Minister Binjamin Netanyahu was a key Irgun leader) that had been fighting Arabs, it now turned its guns and bombs on the British, blowing up, among other things, the King David hotel which served as the British army’s headquarters in Palestine. Deciding that the game was no longer worth the candle, the Brits gave their Mandate back to the United Nations and left Palestine in 1948. 

The UN proposed a two state solution with Jerusalem internationalized. This was rejected by the Arabs who declared war on the newly form Israel and promptly lost the fight, leaving Palestine and Jerusalem along an armistice line that now constitutes the internationally recognized Israeli border. About 750,000 Palestinian refugees from the area that was now Israel were left stranded in camps in the West Bank, Gaza, and other countries like Jordan and Lebanon. Nothing fundamental changed until 1967 when the Six Day War left Israel in charge of the West Bank and Gaza and gave rise to the Israeli settler movement setting the stage for decades of struggle, terrorist attacks, war in Lebanon, UN resolutions calling for peace negotiations and various more or less aimless “peace talks.” 

The first “Intifada” of 1987-89 and the Gulf War of 1990-91 began to create movement. U.S. President George H.W. Bush called for a peace conference in Madrid and also for a halt to Israeli settlement construction, which U.S. aid was inevitably underwriting. Indeed, Bush suspended certain aid flows to Israel. At the same time, the election of Yitzhak Rabin as Israeli Prime Minister led to an agreement between the two sides in Oslo under which Israel would gradually withdraw its army from some occupied areas and transfer responsibilities for such things as education, health, and police to Palestinian governance. The deal also committed the Palestinians to recognition of Israel’s right to exist and to renunciation of all acts of violence. 

As long as Rabin was in charge, things moved steadily, if slowly, in a good direction. But his assassination in late 1995 by an Israeli, I repeat, an Israeli shooter resulted in what the shooter and his backers obviously wanted which was an unwinding of the whole peace process. 

ARAFAT AND DESPERATE EFFORTS 

Yasir Arafat, for many years a major thorn in the Israeli side and even caused by Israel to be exiled from Lebanon to Tunis at one point, had been resurrected by Rabin to be his (Rabin’s) key interlocuter for peace negotiations. Rabin’s untimely death was a huge loss to both the Palestinians and the Israelis, but Arafat managed to stay in the game for quite a while longer and during his period of leading the Palestinians there occurred perhaps the best opportunity for a long term, peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

I met him in the summer of 2002 at his then headquarters in Ramallah just outside of Jerusalem. I had requested the meeting a couple of weeks in advance and at 3 p.m. on August 10, I received a call telling me that “Chairman Arafat can see you, but you must be at the Ramallah checkpoint at 5 p.m. Since Ramallah is essentially a suburb of Jerusalem, under normal circumstances it should not take more than a half hour to get there and to see Arafat. But nothing about the West Bank is normal. About 400 kilometers of special roads are reserved for Israeli settlers while Palestinians must stop at endless checkpoints to have their vehicles and whatever they are carrying inspected. It can take hours to go a couple of miles. 

Once through the checkpoint, my car headed with difficulty to the Muqata, Arafat’s headquarters. The roads had been rutted and crushed by Israeli army tanks that were now surrounding the Muqata with guns leveled at Arafat by order of the new Israeli Prime Minister and former Israeli army general Ariel Sharon who succeeded Rabin. Unlike Rabin, Sharon had no use for Palestinians and certainly not for Arafat. 

When I finally reached his presence at the sandbagged entrance of the Muqata, I was quite surprised to see a very small man whose hand almost disappeared in my own more or less average male hand as we greeted each other with a handshake. 

In his small, simply furnished and telegram/memo laden office he had gathered the top leadership of his Palestinian Authority team. He was at pains to explain that he was not directing or instigating terror attacks on Israel. Noting that the Israeli army had more or less destroyed all the Palestinian Authority’s police stations and public offices, including closing Palestinian universities and taking computer hard drives, he argued that he had little capability to direct anything. “Bush” he said, “calls for reform and elections, but how can we hold elections when we can’t even make a telephone call?” He attributed recent suicide bombing extremist Hamas and Islamic Jihad organizations that were competing for the support of Palestinians with his Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) for the support of the Palestinian people and noted that the more Israel attacks him and undermines the Palestine Authority, the stronger Hamas becomes. 

We particularly discussed the relatively recent negotiations at Camp David in July, 2000, and at Taba in January of 2001. In March 2000, then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak (who had immediately succeeded Rabin) had called President Clinton to proposed leapfrogging the tedious Oslo negotiation process by calling an all-or-nothing negotiation session at Camp David. Clinton saw an historic opportunity for an agreement and perhaps a legacy for himself and bit. It had been the ultimate failure of these talks and succeeding talks at Tabah on the Red Sea that had resulted in suicide bombings, the election of Big Israel proponent Ariel Sharon as Israeli Prime Minister and brutal Israeli reprisals. Moreover, the inevitable attribution of blame had led to a broad acceptance among Israeli and American leaders of an orthodox view that the Palestinians had rejected generous Israeli offers because they truly hate Israel and prefer to seek its violent destruction rather than peace. 

Indeed, Barak had explained exactly this to me over breakfast in Washington DC a few months earlier. He insisted that he had offered Arafat the deal of a lifetime: a demilitarized Palestinian state on 92 percent of the West Bank and 100 percent of the Gaza Strip: the dismantling of most of the Israeli settlements and relocation of settlers to an 8 percent portion of the West Bank to be annexed by Israel; creation of a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem; custody (not sovereignty) of the Temple Mount; a return of refugees to the Palestinian state (but not to Israel proper), and a massive international aid program. Nevertheless, he (Barak) insisted that Arafat had said “no” and was just performing and seeking maximum Israeli concessions without negotiating in good faith. He insisted to me that there is no “truth” in Arab culture and that they have no qualms about lying. 

Very significantly, he argued that Palestinians don’t believe Israel has a right to exist and that they see demographics (Israeli birth rate is far below Palestinian rate) as their main weapon. He insisted to me that the Palestinians would take advantage of Israeli democracy to turn Israel into “a state for all its citizens” and then push for a bi-national state until demographics gives them a majority and thereby an end to the “Jewish state.” 

In another conversation I had with President Clinton’s lead Camp David negotiator Dennis Ross, I heard essentially the same argument. Ross didn’t say it the same way as Barak, but he put most of the blame for the failure of the talks on Arafat. He called Arafat a “surfer” who missed the “big wave” because he was more interested in surfing than in riding into shore. Clinton also pointed the finger at Arafat. 

But Arafat said it was Barak, not Arafat, who rejected the Clinton-Taba peace plan ideas. He said Barak had admitted that he could not sell the plan to the Israeli public - with his recent electoral defeat at the hands of the Israeli hawk Sharon. Arafat added that he would welcome a settlement imposed by the United States. I took this seriously because several leading Israelis had told me the only real hope was a U.S. imposed settlement. Not a “we stand with Israel” deal, but a sincere American sculpted deal aimed at delivering fairness for both sides. 

Saab Erekat was Arafat’s chief negotiator. A University of California graduate with a PhD in economics, he pointed to another factor virtually never mentioned in the normal discussions. I asked him why the suicide bombings and terrorist attacks could not be stopped and noted that as one who knew America he surely recognized how devastating each of these attacks is to any American support for the Palestinians. 

His response was deeply troubling. “Of course, I know that”, he replied. “But listen to me. I am supposed to have some authority here in Jericho, but I am being made more irrelevant day by day. The real head of Jericho is Lieutenant Allon down at the checkpoint. It is he who decides who gets into the city and who gets out, whether an old woman gets to the hospital or not, whether fuel comes in or not. And just as he is undermining me, the guys over here,” pointing to the local Mosque, “are also undermining me by telling the people that Erekat can do nothing for you and only God can help. Life on the West Bank is hell. Unemployment is near 80 percent. Half the people are living on only $2 per day in hovels and must wait at checkpoints so that Israeli settlers can have priority. The Israelis complain about suicide bombings and they are correct to do so, but more Palestinians are being killed by Israelis than the reverse. Every time Sharon orders reprisals and assassinations, he creates more support for Hamas." 

Re Camp David, Erekat said that he and Arafat had begged Clinton for more time but to no avail. He further noted that it was the Palestinians who had made some of the imaginative proposals such as swapping land in Israel with the Palestinians in exchange for incorporating some of the major West Bank settlements into Israel proper. The real problem, he said, had been the rapidly approaching end of Clinton’s term and the ever weakening political position of Barak which made it impossible for him to commit to anything in the least politically risky.

Of great significance is that this view was essentially shared by Rob Malley, one of the key players on the U.S. side. He agreed that preparation time was dangerously short and driven mostly by the political weakness of Barak and the rapidly approaching end of Clinton’s term. In addition, Barak had not kept his commitment to some interim steps like withdrawal of troops from the West Bank and transfer of control of several villages to the Palestinian side. To Barak, this may have seemed inconsequential because a final deal would incorporate all of it in any case. But to the Palestinians it seemed like the same old game all over again. 

Clearly there was enough blame to go around. But it was not presented that way in the U.S. media or by the U.S. government. 

MEANING FOR TODAY

So here we are twenty years down the road and from where I sit, not much seems to have changed. Yes, the attack, murder, and terror conducted by Hamas was and is despicable and deserves to be severely punished, with Hamas completely eliminated as a player in the future. But is killing half or a fourth or even five percent of the 2.2 million people locked in Gaza with severely limited supplies of water, food, medicine, and electric power going to achieve that? 

Is it really wise for the United States to be “standing with Israel” in supporting the conduct of massive destruction and the inevitable murder of thousands of innocent people? Indeed, isn’t that exactly what Hamas wants? Think of the propaganda win it will have in the rest of the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Latin America if by standing with Israel we effectively condone atrocities as bad as or worse than those of Hamas. Think of the support this will give to China and its drive to create alternatives to the G-20, the G-7, and the UN. 

There has to be a better way. 

~ Clyde Prestowitz, "Israel, Palestinians, and America," October 15, 2023

Fortune cookie on taking risks

You may be disappointed if you fail, but you are doomed if you don't try.

~ fortune cookie



Oct 22, 2023

The Economist: "Ukraine faces a long war"

The war in Ukraine has repeatedly confounded expectations.  It is now doing so again.  The counter-offensive that began in June was based on the hope that Ukrainian soldiers, equipped with modern Western weapons and after training in Germany, would recapture enough territory to put their leaders in a strong position at any subsequent negotiations. 

This plan is not working.  Despite heroic efforts and breaches of Russian defences near Robotyne, Ukraine has liberated less than 0.25% of the territory that Russia occupied in June.  The 1,000km front line has barely shifted.  Ukraine’s army could still make a breakthrough in the coming weeks, triggering the collapse of brittle Russian forces.  But on the evidence of the past three months, it would be a mistake to bank on that. 




The Economist on booming Middle East economies and the prospect for peace

If you thought the Middle East was stagnant, think again.  The Gulf economies are among the richest and most vibrant on the planet, helped by a Brent crude oil price that rose back to over $90 per barrel this week.  A $3.5trn fossil-fuel bonanza is being spent on everything from home-grown artificial intelligence models and shiny new cities in the desert, to filling the coffers of giant sovereign-wealth funds that roam the world’s capital markets looking for deals. 

As the cash flows in, the chaos shows signs of receding, thanks to the biggest burst of diplomacy for decades.  Saudi Arabia and Iran have negotiated detente in a rivalry that has lasted since the Iranian revolution in 1979.  Civil wars in Syria and Yemen are killing fewer people, as their sponsors seek de-escalation.  Following the Abraham accords between Israel and some Arab governments, Saudi Arabia is considering recognising the Jewish state, 75 years after its creation.  The region’s global clout is rising—four countries are about to join the brics club of non-aligned powers that want a less Western-dominated world. 




The Economist on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process

Have more time and effort ever been devoted to peace to so little effect?  America began overseeing talks between the Israelis and Palestinians three decades ago.  But the Holy Land remains contested by two peoples who cannot bring themselves to live together.  The fighting in May that left 242 Palestinians and ten Israelis dead accomplished nothing except to clear the field for the next round of fighting. 

The peace process set up in the Oslo accords in 1993 aims to create two states that agree to disagree—using land swaps, security guarantees, a deal to share Jerusalem and a limited “right of return” for Palestinians.  Israel’s prize was to be a thriving democracy and a sanctuary for Jews; for Palestinians it was the promise of self-rule.  At times, peace has been tantalisingly close, only to recede again amid mutual recrimination.




Oct 21, 2023

President Biden urges Israel not to repeat its mistakes after 9/11

Justice must be done.  But I caution this: while you feel that rage, don't be consumed by it.  After 9/11 we were enraged in the United States.  While we sought justice and got justice, we also make mistakes.

~ President Joe Biden, televised address, October 19, 2023

(Biden's televised address was in response to the October 7 Hamas attack on Israeli civilians.)



Meirion & Susie Harries on how entry into World War I transformed America

At Cantigny and Belleau Wood, on the Marne, and across the Soissons plateau to the Vesle river, American divisions helped push the Germans back.  Their performance helped brace the Allies; but it was the promise of apparently limitless power to come that buried German hopes.  In the fall, two newly minted American armies joined the massive offensive that finally brought Germany to her knees.

So why, given such solid achievement, is America's Great War so little regarded at home?  Obviously, this conflict has been overlaid by the wars that followed, the Second World Ear in particular.  But emotion has helped make America's memory selective too - and the strongest emotion in the mix has been shame: the nineteen months of war began in a blaze of patriotic unity, and ended in bitterness, division, and regret.

American went to fight in 1917 with an innocent determination to remake the world; the nation emerged in November 1918 with its sense of purpose shattered, with its certainties shaken, and with a new and unwelcome self-knowledge.  Many Americans wanted to turn their backs on the war almost from the moment it ended.

The timing of the war could not have been worse for American society.  In 1914, the country was changing more rapidly than at any time in its history.  People were trying to come to terms with the massive industrial development that had followed the Civil War - the vast immigration it had sparked, the growth of the cities, the closing of the frontier, the new technologies and their impact on daily life and work.  War interrupted all the attempts at social reform and the search for a new, united America, and it aggravated the tensions of a society in flux.

The nature of the war increased the damage.  This was total war, the conflict not of army against army but nation against nation, and it required the mobilization of every resource, human, moral, and material; the shock was greater because few Americans had seriously contemplated the possibility of entering the war and the country had made no preparations to fight a land war in Europe.  Unplanned and uncoordinated, the mobilization exploded under a society that prided itself on being quintessentially civilian.

The federal budget grew from $742 million in 1916 to almost $14 billion in 1918, and the balance of political power shifted just as dramatically.  Where once power had been widely dispersed and shared, during the war the nation was organized and directed from the center down to the details of its dress, its food, and its conversation.  The nation surrendered itself to the draft, to censorship, to repression.  Dissent was forbidden, and even honest criticism was outlawed.  Worse, ordinary Americans volunteered to police the system, to spy on their neighbors, to condone violence and the abuse of civil rights, to participate in a shameful travesty of their former lives.

By insisting on conformity, the government placed enormous strains on this diverse society.  The emotions it whipped up to unite its people against the foreign enemy - hatred, fear, suspicion, intolerance - turned inward and ravaged the people themselves.  Blacks, radicals, religious minorities, the foreign-born, all became scapegoats for the country's ills, victims of a nativism that grew more intense as the first shoots of communism appeared on American soil in 1918.

[...]

When the peace negotiations at Versailles finally came to an end, America perceived itself as having gained nothing; the prevailing sense was of having participated in a vindictive, dishonorable treaty dictated by the Allies.  As far as they were able, Americans turned their backs on Europe and tried to return to normality.  But there was no going back for America, any more than for Britain or Russia.  Americans could not recapture the innocent optimism and self-confidence of the prewar days.  Wide rents had appeared in the social fabric of American, and the experiment of the melting pot appeared to be over.  Rudely, the war had thrust Americans into the uncertain future of the twentieth century: its consequences are our legacy today.

~ Meirion & Susie Harries, The Last Days of Innocence: America at War, 1917-1918 (1997), prologue, pp. 7-9



Oct 20, 2023

Benjamin Netanyahu on why he supports Hamas

Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas.  This is part of our strategy, to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.  It's impossible to reach an agreement with them.  Everyone knows this.  But we control the height of the flame.

~ Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing the Israeli cabinet, March 2019





Oct 18, 2023

Chris Walen on the commercial real estate bust

On the commercial side, because of such uncertainty as to what some of these assets are worth, a lot of the big buyers have stepped back and said, "ok, wait, we're going to see what happens."  So, for example, look at some of the marks that the banks are talking about.  Look at what Bank of America's talking about on their commercial loan exposures.  They basically have cut them in half.  And I think that's the appropriate posture for the banks to take.  If they get the money back later, great, they can take a gain.  But I think for now, when you're talking about urban commercial properties, especially older properties, you've got to be very very cautious.  If you read The Real Deal, which is one of my favorite reads, they're cataloguing all of these restructurings and foreclosures and everything else, and it's because these assets are underutilized.  Walk around New York City.  We have lots of tourists, but he buildings are empty.  We still have a really significant underutilization of office buildings in New York, most of the major cities around the country, including the South.  You would think Texas and the rest of the South would be different; they're not.  Atlanta.  It's astounding, but all of these cities are dealing with a sudden change in the use case for commercial properties that nobody anticipated.  It's like we wound the clock back a hundred years, we've taken Henry Ford and kidnapped him, right?  So we don't have this car-centric, commuter-centric model for cities anymore.  People realize that they can work at home.

~ Christopher Whalen, interview, Forward Guidance, 2:45 mark, October 17, 2023



Oct 15, 2023

Omar Baddar on Israeli human right abuses towards Palestinians

There's all these announcements about they're [Israeli Defense Forces] going to do everything they can to avoid civilian casualties.  It is really worth emphasizing here that Israel has bombed Gaza many, many times before and Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International and even Israeli human rights organizations like B'Tselem say that this is not at all what Israel's conduct is.  There isn't an effort to minimize civilian casualties.  There is mass indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas and frankly, we're watching that unfold right now as well.  The policy is essentially to punish the entire Palestinian population, cutting off electricity to all of Gaza, preventing anyone in Gaza from coming in and out.  This is an act of collective punishment and this is exactly the trajectory that we unfortunately are on.  I think we are going to see much greater death that's going to cover the entire Gaza strip and at the end of it, Palestinians are going to remain a population that is captive and under an illegal seige, as recognized by the U.N.  And we're only setting ourselves up towards another round of this in the future.  

What we need right now is the world community to come together and start dealing with this issue seriously, understanding that this policy of giving Israel carte blanche to behave however it wants towards Palestinians is not a way to actually achieve long-lasting peace.  You can't keep doing the same thing over and over againd and expecting a different result.  The one thing that has not been tried so far is allowing Palestinians to be free of Israeli occupation and military dictatorship.  Until we start taking Palestinian grievances seriously, until Israel starts seeing Palestinians as equal human beings who are deserving of the same human rights and decency and dignity that Israelis enjoy, I'm afraid we're going to be stuck in this situation for a very, very long time.

~ Omar Baddar, Palestinian-American Middle East analyst, CNN interview, 3:25 mark, October 9, 2023



Oct 11, 2023

Connor O'Keefe on war, revenge and killing civilians

War is no trivial subject.  It’s violence on the widest scale.  At their best, wars can throw off the worst tyrannies and liberate the oppressed.  But they can also bring about the worst atrocities. 

That’s why it is so important to have a firm and precise understanding of when violence is justified.  History shows that without this it is far too easy for our healthy human reactions and emotions to be funneled into support for further crimes—trapping us in indiscriminate revenge cycles.

~ Connor O'Keefe, "Is It Just War or Unjustified Slaughter of Innocents?," Mises Wire, October 11, 2023



Murray Rothbard on the Israel-Palestine conflict (1982)

Libertarians are opposed to every State.  But the State of Israel is uniquely pernicious, because its entire existence rests and continues to rest on a massive expropriation of property and expulsion from the land.  Libertarians in the United States often complain about the radical libertarian adherence to “land reform,” i.e. the giving back of stolen land to the victims.  In the case of expropriations centuries ago, who gets what is often fuzzy, and conservative libertarians can raise an important point.  But in the case of Palestine, the victims and their children—the true owners of the land—are right there, beyond the borders, in refugee camps, in hovels, dreaming about a return to their own.  There is nothing fuzzy here.  Justice will only be served, and true peace in the devastated area will only come, when a miracle happens and Israel allows the Palestinians to stream back in and repossess their rightful property.  Until then, so long as the Palestinians continue to live and no matter how far back they are pushed, they will always be there, and they will continue to press for their dream of justice.  No matter how many square miles and how many cities Israel conquers (shall it be Damascus next?), the Palestinians will be there, in addition to all the other Arab refugees newly created by the Israeli policy of blood and iron.  But allowing justice, allowing the return of the expropriated, would mean that Israel would have to give up its exclusivist Zionist ideal.  For recognizing Palestinians as human beings with full human rights is the negation of Zionism; it is the recognition that the land was never “empty.” 

A just Israeli state (insofar as any state can be just), then, would necessarily be a de-Zionized state, and this no Israeli political party in the foreseeable future would have the slightest desire to do. And so the slaughter and the horror will go on.

~ Murray Rothbard, "The Massacre," The Libertarian Forum, October 1982



George Carlin on government propaganda

I have certain rules I live by.  My first rule: I don’t believe anything the government tells me.

~ George Carlin



Jeff Berwick on the Ocober 7 attack on Israel

A lot of people actually believe this narrative that the Palestinian people are evil.  It's totally not the case.  Absolutely not the case.  A lot of the people in Israel aren't evil either, but the government of Israel is super super evil, and they're the ones doing all of this [false flag attack on Israel].  And because people don't wake up to this, we're probably going to end up in a World War III where most people are going to end up dead.  So first the lefties tried to kill everyone with all the lethal injections [Covid vaccines], they did a pretty good job, and now the righties are going to try to kill everyone with war.  And they all hate us libertarians.  And I'm just sitting at the ranch, got all our food here, we're ready to go for the apocalypse.

~ Jeff Berwick, "FALSE FLAG: We Just Had Another 9/11 Inside Job in Israel And Everyone Is Falling For It Again," The Dollar Vigilante, 1:12:40 mark, October 9, 2023



Oct 3, 2023

Scott Ritter on how Senator Diane Feinstein went along with the WMD lie to justify Iraq War

I met Senator Diane Feinstein once, in the lead up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.  She had just recently been assigned to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (in 2001), and it was in that capacity that she had a senior staffer from the committee ask me to come to Washington DC to brief her on Iraqi WMD and the allegations being made by the Bush administration that Iraq continued to possess them.  We met in a secure conference room in the Capital building—me, the Senator, and a half dozen staffers and aides.  It was a polite, professional affair, with the Senator asking questions and taking notes.  Eventually she confronted me—“Your position is causing us some difficulty. You are making the US look bad in the eyes of the world.”  I replied that my analysis and the underlying facts were rock solid, something she agreed with. I said that while I knew she couldn’t reveal sensitive intelligence, if she could look me in the eye and say she has seen unequivocal proof that Iraq retained WMD, I’d shut up and go away.  She looked at her retinue, and then me.  “I have seen no such intelligence,” she replied.  She thanked me for the briefing, and said it provided her with “food for thought.” 

[On October 11, 2002, Senator Feinstein voted in favor of the resolution authorizing war with Iraq. Later, she said she had been misled by the Bush administration and bad intelligence.]

I will forever know Senator Feinstein as someone who had been empowered by the truth, and lacked the moral courage to act on it.  The blood of thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis stains her soul.  I hope when she stands in judgment before her maker, she is punished accordingly.

~ Scott Ritter, former UN weapons inspector and US intelligence officer, "Blood of thousands of Americans, Iraqis stains Senator Feinstein’s soul: Former US official," PressTV, September 30, 2023