Scott Black on the consumer

My one concern is that the consumer is stretched.  The savings rate has dropped to 3.8%, and credit-card debt is at a record $1.12 trillion, while student-loan debt is at a near-record $1.75 trillion.  It is hard to see how the consumer will continue to drive the economy in a big way.  Thus my GDP forecast is modest.

~ Scott Black, Barron's, July 13, 2024

Scott Black on U.S. national debt

The U.S. has $19.2 trillion of debt, equal to 105% of GDP, not including entitlement programs. With few exceptions, no one seems to care. This is the highest debt-to-GDP ratio since the Truman administration, but President Truman inherited high debt levels after the U.S. fought two world wars. If interest rates go up by two percentage points, that is another $380 billion a year in interest payments, which the country can’t afford.

~ Scott Black, "Barron’s 2016 Midyear Roundtable: 24 Investment Ideas," Barron's, June 12, 2016