Daniel Kahneman on hindsight bias

The core of hindsight bias is that we believe we understand the past, which implies the future should also be knowable; but in fact we understand the past less than we believe we do – compelling narratives foster an illusion of inevitability; but no such story can include the myriad of events that would have caused a different outcome.

~ Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow

Warren Buffett on business forecasting

In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.

~ Warren Buffett