Shaun Rein on how the U.S. has been a magnet for talent

One of the great things about America is that we have been a place that the top talent in the world, from China, from the Soviet Union, from Vietnam, they all want to come to our country.  Because America is a great country.  It's an exceptional country.  And so we should be making it easier for top talent, people who bring money, bring in intellectual knowledge into the United States.  That's what makes America great and that's what we should be encouraging.

 ~ Shaun Rein, Twitter/X post, November 12, 2025

 

Shaun Rein on the real China vs. Western media lies

When I first arrived in China in 1997 to study Mandarin when I was 19 years old, I didn't know what to expect. The Chinese side of my family always taught me to pay respect to Chinese culture and history but they were apolitical - they didn't say anything good or bad about the Chinese government. They had originally moved to the US in the 19th century to work in the California gold mines 

I had watched videos of Tiananmen. I had taken a few intro to China courses in freshman year in college, taught by some old white men. I had read books by Mike Chinoy (who has since blocked me on Twitter)

And I had read a lot of WSJ & NYT articles that showed a lot of negative things about the "CCP". Corruption. Oppressive. The articles made it seem the Chinese people hated the government and wanted American style liberal democracy

So when I arrived in Tianjin, I was shocked to find that most Chinese supported the CPC. Deng Xiaoping had just died and shopkeepers put little glass bottles in the front of their shops to pay homage 

Taxi drivers had little paintings of Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai dangling from their backview mirrors 

People felt their lives were getting better and, more importantly, they felt the lives of their kids would be better. And literally, every interaction with a policeman or a government official was positive 

They were happy to see me as an American coming to China. They welcomed me as if I were important or a celebrity. They brought me into their homes for tea, took my out to restaurants, walked with me in parks

In other words, the China I read in the NYT, WSJ and in books written by so-called journalists like Mike Chinoy didn't exist in real life

Perhaps I was naive. I applied for jobs at NYT and in the State Department. I thought they would want someone like me, who had spent time on the ground and spoke reasonable Chinese, to bring a balanced and objective view to China coverage

Over the last 30 years, I realized I was naive. I've met a good portion of the NYT, WSJ, Economist journalists covering China Many don't speak Chinese. Many were more like activists, trying to denigrate and demean China because it didn't adopt an American style political system

Others were bigots and racists. Many frankly were just horrible horrible people 

I started writing books on China to be balanced and basically to counteract the lies by people like ex WSJ reporter Bob Davis 

I'm a businessman. It would've been better for me to shut up and be like McKinsey - be reticent and stay out of controversy

But I had to speak. We Americans are being lied to, to this day, by mainstream media about China. That's why Trump wins - we all know these journalists just lie

~ Shaun Rein, LinkedIn post, June 9, 2025

Shaun Rein on bringing back manufacturing to America

If Trump, Howard Lutnick, Scott Bessent want to bring low end manufacturing back to America to create low paying jobs for Americans, we should make a rule that their kids & grandkids should work in the factories first. 

 

Instead of designing dresses & shoes, Ivanka should sew clothes & cobble shoes together for her brand. 

Instead of Kai hitting golf balls, she should work in a factory making golf balls or the clothes for Tiger Woods, her mother's boyfriend.

Donny Jr could work as a foreman in a rare earth mine or gas field - he's full of enough hot air.

No, I want my kid and future grandkids innovating the next iPhone or drone company, not making them on the factory floor.

I want my descendants staying healthy by running in Nike or Hoka shoes, not making them. 

Yes, China benefits from trade with America.  But we benefit from trade with China too.  Our prosperity over the last 25 years is largely based on the backs of Chinese, Vietnamese, Cambodian workers.

We should be thanking them for making our lives better, not pillorying them. 

We should have a rule - any Congressmen or Cabinet member that supports war or reshoring low end manufacturing should be forced to have their progeny go to battle or work in factories first. 

I'd bet the warmongering and voodoo economic theory would stop immediately.

~ Shaun Rein, LinkedIn post, May 20, 2025

Shaun Rein: "Hi Scotty Bessent, it's been 12 years since we last met to talk about investing in China"

Hi Scotty Bessent, it's been 12 years since we last met to talk about investing in China when you were still CIO over at Soros (btw, amazing how you moved from Soros' right hand to Trump's side despite MAGA hating Soros).

At the time, it was clear to me you underestimated China's economic rise & support for the CPC among everyday Chinese.  You were uber bearish on China because it adopted a communist political system, and you didn't think the growth rates were sustainable. You took an ideological rather than a data based view at analyzing China.  There was also a whiff of American superiority (let's be real and call it bigotry) in your analysis.

Boy, you were wrong obviously.  You should have listened to me then.  China became the world's largest retail market, powering the profits of American firms from Boeing to Nike, Apple, Estee Lauder, Buick, KFC.  It now rivals us in technology from DeepSeek to Huawei to BYD.

[...]

Now you're US Treasury Secretary. Congrats!  Again, you'll have to tell us how you switched from Soros to MAGA.

But now your underestimation of China is dangerous - it doesn't just hurt your returns for your LPs, now you're hurting the economic well being of me and my fellow Americans for being so arrogant and blind about China.

China has the resolve to push back hard against Trump's tariffs even though you think China doesn't have the cards.  Xi Jinping won't yield.  China views this as a once in a century opportunity to change the world order forever, at our disadvantage.  And the CPC's legitimacy doesn't come from a Democratic vote, it comes from making China strong again after a century of humiliation from American and European imperial powers.  In other words, the CPC has been preparing for a showdown like this since it's very existence.

China has derisked from America since 2017.  They are selling well into ASEAN and Africa.  Your America First strategy has alienated Europe and Canada so they are pivoting back to China.  We are isolated and friendless, just like you, JD Vance and Trump intended.

Xi Jinping, Wang Yi and He Lifeng won't take your call, but I will.  Maybe you'll listen to me to figure out how to extricate America from the economic and geopolitical mess you've gotten us in. 

Shipping volumes are down to covid era levels, farmers are demanding subsidies and Walmart and Apple's CEOs are telling you there will be shortages come the summer.  Our stock markets are like a casino, waiting for word from you or Trump that your tariff stupidity won't go on forever.

America and China both benefit from cooperation and mutual respect.  Let's get back to Bush era respect.  I'll even take the Obama era.

You ignored my advice once 12 years ago, don't ignore it again. 

~ Shaun Rein, Twitter/X post, April 23, 2025

Shaun Rein on Scott Bessent's view of China

It's not going to be an easy win for Trump's tariffs and trade war.  Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, says that China isn't holding the cards and is going to fold quickly.  Now on a slight personal anecdote, I've actually advised Scott in the past when he was still at Soros Investment Management and he was investing in China.  He has been bearish and negative on China for 12-13 years, ever since I met him.  Basically, his view of analyzing the Chinese equity markets was "It's a communist country.  Thus, from an ideological standpoint, China will fail."  Well obviously in the last dozen years since I advised Scott, China's economy and political system has grown.  So Scott was not looking at data, was not looking at facts about China's strength then and he's not looking at facts and strengths now.

~ Shaun Rein, "'Made in USA:' A Wishful Scheme Dressed Up As Policy," 4:00 mark, Thinkers Forum, April 23, 2025

Shaun Rein: manufacturing is not coming back to the U.S.

Don't get me wrong, this is definitely going to bring pain to the Chinese economically.  You're already seeing scores of cheap manufacturing already closing shop and relocating to Vietnam and Cambodia. Let me also be clear, they're moving to cheaper destinations.  They're not going to bring jobs or manufacturing back to the United States.  It's just not going to happen.  American doesn't have the manufacturing ecosystem: workers, land, laws that help promote strong manufacturing.  

You're already seeing TSMC, Taiwan's big semiconductor company, has spent billions of dollars trying to build semiconductor factories in Arizona and they've had huge problems, from a human resource standpoint, from a quality control standpoint and from a regulatory standpoint.  This was supposed to be Joe Biden's baby.  So it's a pipe dream, to use a word that Janet Yellen, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary, said.  It's a pipe dream to bring all this manufacturing back to the United States.

It's much better for China to make what it's good at and the United States to make what they're good at.

~ Shaun Rein, "'Made in USA:' A Wishful Scheme Dressed Up As Policy," 9:55 mark, Thinkers Forum, April 23, 2025

Shaun Rein on trade with China: "I'm hopeful that Trump is going to realize the pragmatism"

I also think that Trump is pragmatic and he's going to see U.S.-China trade eventually is good for the American population.  If you look at it, inflation is a major problem in the United States right now.  Partially it's because what I consider to be an irresponsibly loose monetary policy by the Fed in the last five years during the Covid era where we've added - almost doubled - almost $18 trillion to the American deficit.  Part of it is because of high energy prices from Russia because of the Russia-Ukraine war.  But a large part of it is tariffs.  It's no surprise that there's major inflation in the United States when there's tariffs on $350 billion of Chinese-made goods.

I'm hopeful that Trump is going to realize the pragmatism.  If you look at it, in the United States the average SUV costs $43,000.  The average sedan costs $38,000.  BYD, a Chinese NEV maker, just announced that their $9,000 model.  It's going to have full autonomous driving as good, if not better than Tesla.  Wouldn't it be great for the everyday American is they could buy a $9,000 car from BYD and that would help solve the massive inflation problem that's hitting the United States.

[...]

I'm hopeful that under Trump that an accommodation can be made, that a trade deal can be made.  I'm not sure it's going to happen in year one, I'm not sure it's going to happen in year two or even in year three, but Trump has a pathological need to say that he got a trade deal and he beat the Chinese.  And I think he's going to say that to the American population even if it's not really a defeat of China, but it's more of a win-win deal.

~ Shaun Rein, "Why China Brushes Off Trump's Tariffs," Thinkers Forum, 10:30 mark, March 1, 2025

BYD Seagull EV

Shaun Rein: "I'm cautiously optimistic over trade between the U.S. and China under Trump"

With Trump, it's quite clear that he's not an ideologue.  He's very transactional.  You see he's criticized Panama, Mexico and Canada and now he's starting to criticize EU.  He's slapping tariffs, slapping criticism, even on America's closest allies.  So that actually lowers the tension with China.  If Trump adds 10% or 60% tariffs in China, it doesn't seem like he's trying to destroy China he's just trying to extract what he considers to be the best trade deal for America and probably for himself.

With Trump, I think Chinese feel that there is an opening.  I'll give an example.  Trump has said, "I don't want NEV [new energy vehicle] automakers to export from China autos into the United States.  I want them to build factories in America, hire American workers and help grow the economy of the United States."  Frankly, that's fair, right?  That's what the Chinese did to GM.  That's what the Chinese did to Ford.  That's what the Chinese did to Volkswagen in the 1990s.  They said to foreign automakers, "If you want to have access to China's growing, swelling middle class, you need to set up joint venture and you need to set up factories in China."  So I think it's fair if Trump, and I think it's frankly fair if Europe, does the same thing to the BYDs, the NIOs and Xpengs of the world and says, "If you want access to America and you want access to Europe, you need to invest in factories in these countries."

The key is that Trump is offering a pathway to Chinese companies.  With Biden it was 100% tariff on Chinese NEVs and it was 100% ban on Chinese NEVs and software...  So Biden basically was banning Chinese NEVs, which is one of China's new productive forces and key pillars for economic growth from ever selling into the United States, while Trump is saying, "Build factories in America."  That gives a pathway.  It's the same thing with TikTok.  Biden wanted to ban TikTok completely, Trump is saying, "Maybe if TikTok sells a 50% stake to American investors, we'll give an avenue."  

I'm actually cautiously optimistic over trade between the U.S. and China under Trump because at least Trump is giving a pathway to Chinese companies to start to invest and grow internationally without fears of sanctions.

~ Shaun Rein, "Why China Brushes Off Trump's Tariffs," Thinkers Forum, 7:20 mark, March 1, 2025

Shaun Rein on how America's containment policies of China are backfiring

Containment policies don't work.  Now one of your previous guests, John Mearsheimer, has said he's 100% all-in on trying to contain China.  I think this is one of the most foolish, stupid policies that America could do.  One, as I've shown, Chinese companies have invested so much on innovation themselves, that they're now as good, if not better than the United States.  If America can build it, you can be sure that China eventually can, too.  It's either bigoted or stupid to say that Chinese can't catch up to Americans because China has the money, it has the government support and it has the STEM intellectual brains to try to catch up.  

Two, it hurts American companies like Intel, like Nvidia.  Nvidia has said that now their former client, Huawei, is now one of their biggest competitors.  So this was another mistake from the Mearsheimer school of thought of trying to contain China.  

And then third, more importantly, when you look at the bigger picture, I think a lot of countries in the Global South - I like to call them the Global Majority - they feel that the United States is bullying China and they're worried that they, too, could be bullied.  The United States went from being the liberators in the world, the good guys - they liberated the world from the Nazis, they liberated the world from a form of communism during the Soviet era that was not very productive economically - now they're really almost like triads or mafia, forcing other countries to follow whatever the United States wants.  And I think the Global Majority is angry at what the United States is doing.  I'll give an example: Malaysia has invested billions and billions of dollars because they want to be a base or locus for data centers.  But in his last week as president, Biden slapped export bans on high-end semiconductor chips to Malaysia.  And so Malaysia's plans over the last five years are gone...

So I think you're starting to see a deterioration of America's prestige, power and dominance in the world because people view them as bullying China and bullying other countries like Malaysia.  And that's why I start to see countries starting to move closer to China's orbit.

~ Shaun Rein, "Why China Brushes Off Trump's Tariffs," Thinkers Forum, March 1, 2025

Shaun Rein on how China responded to the Trump and Biden era sanctions and tariffs

I believe in open and fair competition between the United States and China when it comes to AI.  I think it's amazing that DeepSeek and Alibaba both were able to create language learning models that were as good, if not better, than OpenAI's ChatGPT.  What I'm kind of sad about in the United States you've seen a lot of tech bros, the view DeepSeek's release as a Sputnik moment.  But instead of saying, "Let's outcompete the Chinese fairly, let's invest more in R&D, let's have more good minds on it," they're pushing Trump to try to put even more sanctions and even more expert controls on China.  You see Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, is saying, "We need to add even more export controls."  Alexander Wong, who's also the founder of a big AI company, has also said, "We need to slap more sanctions on China."

I think the reality is the Trump era, the Biden era, sanctions and tariffs have shot America in the foot.  If they hadn't launched such sanctions, China probably wouldn't have focused so much on indigenous innovation.

~ Shaun Rein, "Why China Brushes Off Trump's Tariffs," Thinkers Forum, March 1, 2025

Shaun Rein: Chinese consumers are buying local brands

Chinese consumers are cutting back.  They are buying local brands right now not because they're being told to by the government, but because they're patriotic, just like the Canadians are buying Canadian to offset the Trump tariffs and also because Chinese products are cheaper and just better right now.  So I use a Xiaomi phone because it's about 30% cheaper than Apple.  I think it's almost as good.  Maybe it's as good as an Apple.

So investors need to be buying brands that are Chinese to ride the patriotism trend and also because they're just good value.  Think Luckin Coffee rather than Starbucks.  Think ANTA Sports rather than Nike.

~ Shuan Rein, "Chinese consumers are cutting back and buying local brands, says China Market Group's Shaun Rein," CNBC, 0:50 mark, February 12, 2025