Apr 27, 2019

Jerome Powell warns about the risks of creating asset bubbles

I think we are actually at a point of encouraging risk-taking, and that should give us pause.

~ Jerome Powell, October 2012 FOMC meeting

Apr 20, 2019

Deutsche Bank economist Torsten Sløk on the Goldilocks economy

Boring is good, because boring means no uncertainties that are unmanageable.  This backdrop of no recession and stable growth and low inflation and low rates is bullish for risky assets, in particular equities.

~ Torsten Sløk, chief economist, Deutsche Bank, April 18, 2019

(Sløk was quoted in the April 20, 2019 issue of Barron's by Ben Levisohn in "The Trader" column.)

Jamie Dimon on the business expansion: "no law that it has to stop" (2019)

Do you have to have a recession?... The consumer's in good shape, the balance sheet's in good shape, people are going back to the workforce, companies have plenty of capital... business confidence and consumer confidence are both high... So it could easily go on for years.  There's no law that says it has to stop.

~ Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase Q1 conference call, April 12, 2019

Apr 9, 2019

Max Stirner on the difference between crime and the law

The State calls its own violence law, but that of the individual crime.

~ Max Stirner, The Ego and His Own [1845]

Apr 7, 2019

Ruchir Sharma compares U.S. global market cap to Japan's in the late 1980s

The U.S. today is about 55% of the global market cap, and its share of the global economy is 25%.  The last time such a large gap existed was in the late 1980s, when the Japanese market was 45% of the global market cap and Japan's economy was about 15% of the world total.

~ Ruchir Sharma, Chief Global Strategist, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, "Global View, Local Stocks," Barron's, April 8, 2019

Apr 6, 2019

JPMorgan strategist on the business cycle "no longer even relevant"

We are all used to using the word ‘cycle’; we’re all used to looking at historical charts and graphs and equations and relationships. The reality is that maybe the word ‘cycle’ is no longer even relevant, given that we have so much unconventional central-bank involvement.

~ Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, J.P. Morgan chief U.S. equity strategist, “There’s No Expiration Date on This Bull Market,” Barron’s, April 8, 2019

Apr 2, 2019

Seth Klarman on crowd behavior

Over the long run, the crowd is always wrong.

~ Seth Klarman