Dec 8, 2014

Christine Lagarde on the impact of sharply lower energy prices on the global economy

There will be winners and losers, but on a net-net basis, it’s good news for the global economy.

~ IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council annual meeting, week of December 1-5, 2014

(The IMF attributes roughly 80% of the fall in oil prices to supply-side causes, such as fuel-efficiency standards and decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and only 20% to declining demand from slowing growth.)

Nov 28, 2014

Tom Bodett on experience

In school, you're taught a lesson and then given a test.  In life, you're given a test that teaches you a lesson.

~ Tom Bodett, humorist

Nov 15, 2014

No one accuses [President Eisenhower] of being a Red or even a socialist.  On the contrary, the one great remaining dream of his life seems to be to lead a host against the Red legions all over the world - as if Communism, which is a social disease, could be whipped by armies.  The President does not seem to realize that militarism is a social disease and that it was the effort of the old Germany and France and Italy to bolster their economic systems by militarism supported by government debt that brought all these countries to the brink of bankruptcy in 1914, and then into war to escape the insoluble problems they had created by their folly.  He does not seem to know that militarism bankrupted Germany, France, and Italy twice in fifty years.

~ John T. Flynn, "Our Phoney War on Communism," The American Mercury, February 1954

Nov 9, 2014

Dylan Grice on the paradox of risk management and risk managers

In the broadest sense possible, the greatest and most fundamental risk is the risk of not knowing what you're doing.  To the extent these "risk models" trick "risk managers" into thinking they do, they are dangerous because the blind users to the true nature of risk.  The paradoxical outcome is that such risk managers are making the financial world much riskier than it would otherwise be.

~ Dylan Grice, "The Language of Inflation," Edelweiss Journal, November 4, 2013

Nov 5, 2014

Gnanasekar Thiagarajan: "You can’t be too bearish on gold"

You can’t be too bearish on gold.

~ Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director of Mumbai-based Commtrendz Research, "Cooling Chinese Demand for Gold Adds to Metal’s Gloomy Global Outlook," WSJ, November 4, 2014

Adam Klopfenstein: "I don't see why anyone should buy gold"

When equities are going up and making new highs on the year, I don't see why anyone should buy gold.

~ Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist, Archer Financial Services in Chicago, "Gold Plunges to 4-Year Low," WSJ, October 4, 2014

David Seaburg: "Very hard to make a fundamental case to be long gold"

Long-term I think it's very hard to make a clear fundamental case on why you should be long gold.  I don't think fundamentally the backdrop is that strong.  You've got weak demand coming out of India, China.  You've got the dollar; it's been in one direction straight up.  You've got deflationary fears on the horizon.

~ David Seaburg, head of equity sales trading at Cowen and Co., Talking Numbers, November 5, 2014