Jan 16, 2015

Bruce Krasting on central bank omiscience and the abandoment of the euro peg by the Swiss National Bank


The entire world has signed onto the notion that Central Banks are all powerful. We now have evidence that they are not. Anyone who continues to believes in the All Powerful CB after today is a fool.

~ Bruce Krasting, "End of CB Power - SNB Folds," BruceKrasting.com, January 15, 2015

Jan 15, 2015

Jim Grant recommends 3-year call options on the Swiss franc

We venture that the SNB will sooner or later be forced to permit the franc to appreciate and thus to enrich the holders of low-priced, three-year call options on the Swiss/euro exchange rate. It's a long shot, to be sure--the options are cheap for a reason--but we judge that the prospective reward is worth the obvious risk.

~ Jim Grant, September 14, 2014

(Today the Swiss National Bank announced it will no longer defend the euro by inflating its own currency, sending the Swiss franc up 19% and 20% against the U.S. dollar and euro respectively.  The Swissie effectively retraced 63% of its 3 1/2 year bear market against the dollar... in one day.)

Dec 29, 2014

Jeff Berwick on anarchy vs. slavery

All the word "anarchy" means is no rulers.  So, if you say you are not an anarchist it means you do not want a ruler.  If you want a ruler you are a slave.  I'm surprised how many people are comfortable publicly identifying themselves as slaves.

~ Jeff Berwick

Dec 8, 2014

Christine Lagarde on the impact of sharply lower energy prices on the global economy

There will be winners and losers, but on a net-net basis, it’s good news for the global economy.

~ IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council annual meeting, week of December 1-5, 2014

(The IMF attributes roughly 80% of the fall in oil prices to supply-side causes, such as fuel-efficiency standards and decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and only 20% to declining demand from slowing growth.)

Nov 28, 2014

Tom Bodett on experience

In school, you're taught a lesson and then given a test.  In life, you're given a test that teaches you a lesson.

~ Tom Bodett, humorist

Nov 15, 2014

John T. Flynn on Eisenhower's phoney war on communism

No one accuses [President Eisenhower] of being a Red or even a socialist.  On the contrary, the one great remaining dream of his life seems to be to lead a host against the Red legions all over the world - as if Communism, which is a social disease, could be whipped by armies.  The President does not seem to realize that militarism is a social disease and that it was the effort of the old Germany and France and Italy to bolster their economic systems by militarism supported by government debt that brought all these countries to the brink of bankruptcy in 1914, and then into war to escape the insoluble problems they had created by their folly.  He does not seem to know that militarism bankrupted Germany, France, and Italy twice in fifty years.

~ John T. Flynn, "Our Phoney War on Communism," The American Mercury, February 1954

Nov 9, 2014

Dylan Grice on the paradox of risk management and risk managers

In the broadest sense possible, the greatest and most fundamental risk is the risk of not knowing what you're doing.  To the extent these "risk models" trick "risk managers" into thinking they do, they are dangerous because the blind users to the true nature of risk.  The paradoxical outcome is that such risk managers are making the financial world much riskier than it would otherwise be.

~ Dylan Grice, "The Language of Inflation," Edelweiss Journal, November 4, 2013