Jun 8, 2018

Byron Wien: "the earliest we’re gonna have a recession is 2021"

There will be 10% corrections along the way. Generally, we are in a period of low volatility because there isn’t a recession in sight. My view is the earliest we’re gonna have a recession is 2021.

~ Byron Wien, strategist, Blackstone, "'Something lurking out there' will upset the stock market, says Blackstone's Wien," MarketWatch, June 8, 2018

Jun 3, 2018

John Templeton on investing and the limits of knowledge

An investor who has all the answers doesn't even understand all the questions.

~ Sir John Templeton

Jun 2, 2018

Warren Buffett on the key to investing

The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage.

 ~ Warren Buffett

May 21, 2018

Tony Dwyer: positively-shaped yield curve is bullish

Please don't get bearish when there's a positively-shaped yield curve.

~ Tony Dwyer, as appeared on CNBC, January 25, 2018

May 17, 2018

Robert Patton on school vouchers

Those proponents of liberty who advocate the voucher system fail to recognize that, in so doing, they are giving an implicit endorsement to a principle that they profess to oppose. The fundamental premise of the voucher plan is identical to that underlying the present system of state education. The coercive power of the state (which in the final analysis means the threat or use of the gun) will still be used to seize the property of private individuals in the name of an undefinable public good.

~ Robert Patton, The Freeman [April 1971]

May 7, 2018

Bertrand Russell on confirmation bias

What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires - desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way.

~ Bertrand Russell, Roads to Freedom

Apr 22, 2018

Marc Cohodes on what to avoid in selling short

I don't tackle anything that has momentum, unanalyzable, just because it's too high - like the FANG stocks, I could care less.  I could care less what Cramer's touting... I could care less about the IBD 100...  No interest.  And I'm also not interested in well managed, well run companies who invest in the future.  I've never been short Amazon once.  I've never been short Google, Facebook, Netflix, those guys.

~ Marc Cohodes, RealVision interview with Grant Williams, 45:45 mark