May 21, 2018

Tony Dwyer: positively-shaped yield curve is bullish

Please don't get bearish when there's a positively-shaped yield curve.

~ Tony Dwyer, as appeared on CNBC, January 25, 2018

May 17, 2018

Robert Patton on school vouchers

Those proponents of liberty who advocate the voucher system fail to recognize that, in so doing, they are giving an implicit endorsement to a principle that they profess to oppose. The fundamental premise of the voucher plan is identical to that underlying the present system of state education. The coercive power of the state (which in the final analysis means the threat or use of the gun) will still be used to seize the property of private individuals in the name of an undefinable public good.

~ Robert Patton, The Freeman [April 1971]

May 7, 2018

Bertrand Russell on confirmation bias

What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires - desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way.

~ Bertrand Russell, Roads to Freedom

Apr 22, 2018

Marc Cohodes on what to avoid in selling short

I don't tackle anything that has momentum, unanalyzable, just because it's too high - like the FANG stocks, I could care less.  I could care less what Cramer's touting... I could care less about the IBD 100...  No interest.  And I'm also not interested in well managed, well run companies who invest in the future.  I've never been short Amazon once.  I've never been short Google, Facebook, Netflix, those guys.

~ Marc Cohodes, RealVision interview with Grant Williams, 45:45 mark

Mar 23, 2018

Stephanie Pomboy on the coming pension crisis

The pension funding problem will be the next crisis.  We are looking at a $4 trillion pension deficit across the public and private sectors in the U.S., after nine years of rampant asset inflation.  That's a stunning statistic.  If the market corrects even 15%, and stays there, it will bore massive holes in pensions.  New Jersey, Illinois, state after state, are figuring out how to close this gap.

~ Stephanie Pomboy, founder, MacroMavens, "How the Fed Will Trigger the Next Crash," Barron's, March 24, 2018

Mar 19, 2018

Reason magazine on Trump's steel tariffs

According to 2015 Census data, steel mills employed about 140,000 Americans and added about $36 billion to the economy that year, but steel-consuming industries employed more than 6.5 million Americans and added $1 trillion to the economy. In other words, for every steel-producing job that might benefit from Trump's proposed tariffs, 46 steel-consuming jobs that could be hurt.

~ Eric Boehm, “Trump’s Tariffs Will Make Housing More Unaffordable,” Reason.com, March 19, 2018

Mar 8, 2018

Francis Biddle on the Constitution and war

The Constitution has never greatly bothered any wartime president.

~ Francis Biddle, Franklin Roosevelt's Attorney General, writing in 1962