David Hale sees Japan ahead of the U.S. and Europe (per capita income) in 5 years (1990)

The projected annual growth rate of American productivity in the next five years is 1% to 1.5%.  The projection for Europe is 2% to 3%, excluding Eastern Europe.  For Japan, it's 4%.  At these rates, by the turn of the century, U.S. per-capita income will be $25,000 a year while Japan will be at $32,000 and Europe will be in the low 20s.  The gap with Japan is very big, and it reflects the low level of saving and investment in the United States.

~ David Hale, chief economist, Kemper Financial Services, "A Top Economist Frets About '80s Hangover," Investor's Daily, February 1, 1990