Jan 31, 2017

Jim Grant reports on the bond bubble: "$13 trillion of bonds are priced with negative yields"

Arbor Quantitative Analytics reports that the 30-year Treasury bond delivered a 10% return in the 10 days ended last week, among the best such sprints on record (it was in the 99.5th percentile).  Tuesday's Financial Times reported a drop in 10-year gilt yields to 0.71%, far below any yield recorded even when the pound was convertible into gold at a fixed price.  "Across the world," the paper said, "government bond yields continue to collapse as economists forecast low global growth and greater stimulus from central banks in spite of years of monetary easing.  Dutch benchmark 10-year rates are now negative, joining those of Japan, Germany and Switzerland."  According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, $13 trillion of bonds are priced with negative yields, up from just about none two years ago.

~ Jim Grant, Grant's Interesting Rate Observer, "Remember the Shell Oil 2 1/2s of 1971," July 15, 2016

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