Ayn Rand on ignoring reality

We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.

~ Ayn Rand

Donald Trump from Davos

America's future has never been brighter.

~ Donald Trump, POTUS, 2018 World Economic Forum, January 26, 2018

Marc Benioff on optimism from Davos

It's an economic freight train.  Every CEO is bullish.  One of the things about Davos is that it tends to be a tremendous measurement of where things are.  You [interviewer Andrew Ross Sorkin] and I were both here in 2008, '09, '10 and you can see when everyone is walking around with their head down.  No one's walking around with their head down.  People are excited and they're feeling good about the world.

~ Marc Benioff, CEO, Salesforce.com, CNBC interview from Davos, 2018 World Economic Forum, January 23, 2018

Scott Minerd on the euphoria from Davos

I am starting to consider that Davos may be a valuable contra-indicator.  While I am hesitant to jump to a conclusion, I am troubled by the euphoria undergirding the gathering here.

~ Scott Minerd, chairman of investments at Guggenheim Partners, 2018 World Economic Forum, January 22, 2018

(He notes that the sentiment is so positive that discussions at the forum will focus on just how good it can possibly get. He contrasts that with sentiment in January 2016, where the consensus was convinced that the world was on the brink of recession.)

Ray Dalio from Davos: "If you're holding cash, you're going to feel pretty stupid." (2018)

We are in this Goldilocks period right now where we have had this beautiful deleveraging.  Inflation isn't a problem.  Growth is good, everything is pretty good with a big jolt of stimulation coming from changes in tax laws.

[...]

There is a lot of cash on the sidelines...  We're going to be inundated with cash.  If you're holding cash, you're going to feel pretty stupid.

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You can't have a significant rise in interest rates without knocking over the whole asset markets.  The Fed is going to determine what the level of real interest rates are.

~ Ray Dalio, founder, Bridgewater Associates, CNBC interview from Davos, 2018 World Economic Forum, January 23, 2018

Jim Coulter on Davos 2018: "My biggest concern is how little concern there is"

My biggest concern is how little concern there is...  There's a risk that we've gone from the Goldilocks economy to the Pollyanna economy.

~ Jim Coulter, co-founder and CEO, TPG Capital, CNBC interview from Davos, 2018 World Economic Forum, January 25, 2018

Will Durant on empire

... it is the fatality of empire to breed repeated war.  For the conquered must be periodically reconquered, and the conquerors must keep the arts and habits of camp and battlefield; and at any moment the kaleidoscope of change may throw up a new empire to challenge the old.  In such a situation wars must be invented if they do not arise of their own accord; each generation must be inured to the rigors of campaigns, and taught by practice the sweet decorum of dying for one's country.

~ Will Durant, Our Oriental Heritage, Page 355