Marko Papic investing in 2025: bet against the Davos consensus

Davos is great and you learn a lot, but it is a little bit like living in The Economist cover.  It is what it is.  It's in the price, it's consensus.  And I think that this year there might be three things that happen that will actually go against that consensus.  

First, referring to my point about Donald Trump, we may not want to go swing fully against globalization as a new paradigm.  President Trump has a nuanced position on trade and he will use those tariffs to negotiate new deals...  Maybe we've overstated how much trade wars are going to matter in '25.  

The second thing is that I think people are overstating is just how woefully inadequate Europe is as an investment opportunity.  There are things happening here that very few people brought up at Davos.  One is that there's an important German election coming up.  Second is that there is an energy revolution, both in alternatives but also in terms of LNG supply that will help Europe solve its energy problems.

And so what I would say is that 2025 may actually be a year where the dollar peaks and when some of these consensus trades, which is to be in Magnificent 7, in the U.S., particularly tech, actually... move against that consensus.

~ Marko Papic, "Thoughts From the Apex of Globalization," 1:40 mark, January 26, 2025