While Xi Jinping, in particular, is very very concerned with reuniting Taiwan with the mainland, he does not want to accomplish that by military means, because he understands that the costs and risks associated with that would be many. In Chinese strategic literature and in commentary - they have their own commentariat just like we do - American declinism is a very common theme. They basically believe that "In 10-15 years the Americans probably won't even be around here. They're going to be bankrupt and entrenched, at war with itself. So we don't need to do anything right now."
So the only real thing that I think would prompt in the immediate future, 2025-2026, is if Taiwan were to declare independence - which they could feel more secure doing now that Joe Biden has said "don't worry, whatever happens, if China attacks you we'll step in." The whole idea of strategic ambiguity was to leave Beijing guessing...
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| 2023 |
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