Feb 23, 2021

Kevin Duffy's bond advice in The Coffee Can Portfolio

February 18, 2020 
30-year T-bond yield = 2.01%

My advice: Reduce your bond exposure and shorten the maturities of your bonds. You should not be holding 30-year bonds for, example. 

May 26, 2020 
30-year T-bond yield = 1.43%

Where this leads is anyone’s guess, but it can’t end well… not for the economy and certainly not for bond investors. 

August 11, 2020 
30-year T-bond yield = 1.37%

Bonds are an especially dubious choice. The interest they pay is the lowest in 5,000 years of recorded history (and in many cases negative), so their future cash flows are of little value. The best outcome is to get your money back 10, 20 or 30 years from now, that is assuming the borrower has survived that long and has the ability to pay. Even if that balloon payment is delivered in full, its value will be ravaged by inflation. 

January 24, 2021 
30-year T-bond yield = 1.86%

U.S. Treasury bonds have one of the worst risk/reward characteristics of any investment I’ve seen in my 35-year career.

February 23, 2021
30-year T-bond yield = 2.20%

~ Kevin Duffy, The Coffee Can Portfolio, Feb. 18 2020 - Jan. 24, 2021



No comments: