Tom Woods on the Covid-19 doom-and-gloom models

The IHME model has almost surely been the most influential one when it comes to estimating deaths from the coronavirus, and it was the basis of the claim by White House health officials that the United States could see well in excess of 200,000 deaths.

Since that time -- a mere week and a half ago -- the model has been revised downward twice. It's now saying about 60,000 deaths.

The response from the doomers has been twofold:

(1) "This is because we've been doing such a great job living like vegetables" -- er, "social distancing."

Nice try, but the model already assumed extreme social distancing: schools and businesses closed, and lockdown.

(2) Don't worry, everyone: the models aren't supposed to be right! And if you don't understand that, then you just don't know science, man!

Oh, sure! A model that the authorities explicitly rely on, and use to justify confining people in their homes, destroying their livelihoods, and putting their hopes, dreams, and aspirations on indefinite hold, isn't meant to be taken literally, you unscientific boob! We'll use it to scare the hell out of you, sure -- the model has to have some use -- but other than that, just roll with the punches when we make revisions downward of 25 percent in just two days. That's normal!

~ Tom Woods, April 9, 2020