Jim Grant: "Will central bankers continue to control events or will events start to control the central bankers?" (2019)

The question before the house is whether the central bankers can continue to control events or whether events will turn the tables and start to control the central bankers.  Our money's on events.

We reason that mighty interventions have unintended consequences.  Suppress the rate of interest, and you misdirect capital.  Cut short the corrective processes of a business-cycle downturn, and you store up trouble for the next recession.  Intervene over and over to save a bull market, and you must continue to intervene - you're in too far, you can't stop now, the downside is frightening.

Ultra-low interest rates, low volatility and stretched valuations soothe the spirit as they fatten the net worth.  Rising markers seed a belief that the world has arrived on a kind of permanently high plateau, not necessarily of price but of predictability.

~ Jim Grant, "The surprise factor," Grant's Interest Rate Observer, September 20, 2019