Aug 2, 2016

Jim Grant on the 35-year bond bull market

You are talking to a guy who lived through all but three months of the bond bear market of 1946 to 1981. In the spring of 1946, a long bond yielded about 2.25%, and it ended in 1981 at 15%. Everyone was looking backward to the credit experience of the 1930s and the early ’40s, not anticipating they were about to be treated to a generation-length bear market in interest rates. That was 35 years in the making. And almost 35 years ago, the great bond bull market began that may, or may not, be ending right now. Since the 19th century, the cycles in interest rates are very long-lived. They have ranged from 20-odd years in this country to 85 years in 19th century Britain. So you can’t dogmatize on the timing. At Grant’s, we are very bearish on bonds.

~ Jim Grant, "Jim Grant Is Bullish on Gold, Bearish on Kraft," Barron's, August 1, 2016

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