Long-term investment success is not about making little decisions. It's the big decisions that matter. These big decisions in periods of hyperoptimism or pessimism (like now) are what separate outstanding investment managers from the pack. No player ever made it to the Baseball Hall of Fame for his distinguished bunting record. Now is the time to swing for the fences, not recklessly or nervously, but in a studied, calm and controlled manner.
I will submit that there is a bit of luck involved here. But as the chemist Louis Pasteur once said, "Chance favors only the prepared mind." An investment manager's big decisions are not a coin toss; they come from years of relentless reading, studying those who have excelled and those who have fallen short, dissecting one's own successes and failures, networking with those who can shed new light on a stock or industry and teasing out contrarian points of view.
~ John W. Rogers Jr., "Swing For The Fences," Forbes, May 25, 2009