Look, you can't live your life investing on the probability of black swans and so, yes, I think the economic news is very encouraging. We're moving from a snapback and a recovery into a self-sustaining recovery. The data's been a little soft the last couple of weeks but still I think the economic news is good enough both in the US, Europe, Asia and maybe even in Japan to move markets another 10 or 15% from here.
But, if something awful happens in Bahrain and in Saudi Arabia, all bets are off. And if the Europeans continue to muck up this whole sovereign debt situation, that could be a very disconcerting factor. And look, there's always things to worry about and I'm worried about US house prices and again, the data that came out today shows that US house prices on existing homes are still declining and in fact have declined to a new low and that home sales, in other words of these existing homes, have weakened very significantly in the last month and a half or so.
And that's bad, there's no question about it.
~Barton Biggs, managing partner, Traxis Partners, Bloomberg News interview, March 24, 2011