Jim Grant on the economic recovery

To the shock and consternation of not a few of our readers, this publication has been pushing the line that prosperity is just around the corner...

We built our case for a growth spurt in hiring and GDP on the long-established tendency for strong recoveries to issue from deep recessions and weak recoveries to follow mild ones. In this country, the business-cycle record of the postwar era, and, indeed, of the past 100 years, seems to admit no exception to this rule (if rule it be). No matter what the nature of the economy, no matter how big or intrusive the government, no matter the level of real interest rates prevailing at cyclical low ebb or how high the top marginal tax rate, a steep decline in business activity has presaged a sharp rebound, while a shallow decline has foretold weakness.

~ Jim Grant, "The case of the reluctant recovery," Grant's Interest Rate Observer, December 11, 2009