[Economists are] very good at extrapolating a trend, which almost by definition will hide a turning point. If you're looking in the rearview mirror, you don't see the curve.
When we compare the leading indicators with how they looked in the previous recession, they still fall short of recessionary readings. [However,] we reserve the right to turn on a dime if the leading indicators turn down or up.
~ Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, "Fed, Economists Have Trouble Spotting When Recessions Start," Investor's Business Daily, November 26, 2007