Dec 6, 2007

Kevin Duffy on financial bubbles

If there is one lesson history teaches about bubbles, it is that a central bank is never in control. It is the investing public's perception of their power that swings wildly, from skepticism at first, to belief, to religious fervor. If and when a central banker pulls away the punchbowl late into the party, he is ridiculed and ultimately mocked as irrelevant. This is typically the blow-off phase as the crowd feels invincible and in control. As the balloon begins to deflate, at some point the monetary planner feels compelled to step in. After an initial burst of enthusiasm, the game is over as the mob realizes the central-bank-as-backstop is a hoax and prices are going down regardless.

~ Kevin Duffy, Bearing Asset Management, Bearing Fund 2005 Annual Report, February 2006

No comments: