The metaphor of the drug clinic should not give us the impression that everybody in the economy is crashing. The fact of the matter is that retail sales are up, industrial production is holding. Most likely we are not going to suffer a recession in 2008. Most likely it will be a slowdown. There will be some rise in the interest rate. The central banks are indeed in their rehab phase and the economy will likely pull through and start expanding again more rapidly in 2009.
~ Gene Epstein, Barron's Video, December 24, 2007