Nov 2, 2007

Mish on triggers to economic busts

Triggers?! We don't need no stinking triggers. Was there a trigger to the housing subprime blowup? Was there a trigger to the dotcom collapse? Was their a trigger to to the Japanese deflation scenario? Was there a trigger to the Tulip Mania collapse? Was there a trigger to to to the great depression?

If you want a quote from me, here it is.

Triggers can only be found in 20/20 hindsight and almost all of them wrong. The Smoot Hawley Tariff Act did not cause the great depression. It only made matters worse. There was no trigger to Tulip Mania but there was simple exhaustion. No matter how hard one tries to find "triggers" there really aren't any other than pure trend exhaustion.

It's tough calling a top but I am going to try. I suggest the current trend is exhausted. My last "top call" was specially in regards to housing in the summer of 2005. Can lightning strike twice?

Mike Shedlock (aka "Mish"), Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, July 10, 2007

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