Nov 5, 2007

Kevin Duffy on gurus as contrary indicators

Gurus seem to appear at major turning points. Let’s not forget Harry Dent (who is wildly bullish and still employed). In fact, nearly all of the gurus who were bullish in 2000 still command an audience (Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow even got a raise) and remain unapologetically bullish. Jim Glassman and Kevin Hassett (Dow 36,000) still have jobs; I believe both are still bullish (“we were right, just early”). Technology pied pipers like Alberto Vilar (Amerindo), George Gilder, and Garrett van Wagoner still draw large crowds to conferences.

So the guru indicator is clearly bearish. Btw, remember Ravi Batra, popular author of The Great Depression of 1990? Talk about a buy signal! It was #1 New York Times bestseller 26 weeks running at the time. In 1999 he published a book called The Crash of the Millennium: Surviving the Coming Inflationary Depression. Anyone remember? I didn’t think so. Not a bad call, though no one cared to buy his book. Prechter is super-bearish and largely dismissed as a crackpot. Perfect. Can we script the coming bear market any better?

~ Kevin Duffy, Bearing Asset Management, December 7, 2004

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