Shaun Rein: "Hi Scotty Bessent, it's been 12 years since we last met to talk about investing in China"

Hi Scotty Bessent, it's been 12 years since we last met to talk about investing in China when you were still CIO over at Soros (btw, amazing how you moved from Soros' right hand to Trump's side despite MAGA hating Soros).

At the time, it was clear to me you underestimated China's economic rise & support for the CPC among everyday Chinese.  You were uber bearish on China because it adopted a communist political system, and you didn't think the growth rates were sustainable. You took an ideological rather than a data based view at analyzing China.  There was also a whiff of American superiority (let's be real and call it bigotry) in your analysis.

Boy, you were wrong obviously.  You should have listened to me then.  China became the world's largest retail market, powering the profits of American firms from Boeing to Nike, Apple, Estee Lauder, Buick, KFC.  It now rivals us in technology from DeepSeek to Huawei to BYD.

[...]

Now you're US Treasury Secretary. Congrats!  Again, you'll have to tell us how you switched from Soros to MAGA.

But now your underestimation of China is dangerous - it doesn't just hurt your returns for your LPs, now you're hurting the economic well being of me and my fellow Americans for being so arrogant and blind about China.

China has the resolve to push back hard against Trump's tariffs even though you think China doesn't have the cards.  Xi Jinping won't yield.  China views this as a once in a century opportunity to change the world order forever, at our disadvantage.  And the CPC's legitimacy doesn't come from a Democratic vote, it comes from making China strong again after a century of humiliation from American and European imperial powers.  In other words, the CPC has been preparing for a showdown like this since it's very existence.

China has derisked from America since 2017.  They are selling well into ASEAN and Africa.  Your America First strategy has alienated Europe and Canada so they are pivoting back to China.  We are isolated and friendless, just like you, JD Vance and Trump intended.

Xi Jinping, Wang Yi and He Lifeng won't take your call, but I will.  Maybe you'll listen to me to figure out how to extricate America from the economic and geopolitical mess you've gotten us in. 

Shipping volumes are down to covid era levels, farmers are demanding subsidies and Walmart and Apple's CEOs are telling you there will be shortages come the summer.  Our stock markets are like a casino, waiting for word from you or Trump that your tariff stupidity won't go on forever.

America and China both benefit from cooperation and mutual respect.  Let's get back to Bush era respect.  I'll even take the Obama era.

You ignored my advice once 12 years ago, don't ignore it again. 

~ Shaun Rein, Twitter/X post, April 23, 2025